Monte Carlo Simulation
Run 500 random market scenarios to estimate the probability your money lasts.
Your total investable assets at the start of retirement.
Total yearly spending in retirement. Average retiree household spends ~$50,000–$70,000/yr (BLS 2023).
Income that arrives regardless of markets (Social Security, pension, annuity). Average SS benefit is ~$23,000/yr (2024). This is subtracted from expenses — only the gap is drawn from your portfolio.
Expected average yearly portfolio return. Typical benchmarks: ~10% stocks-only (S&P 500 historical), ~7% balanced 60/40, ~4–5% conservative bonds/cash.
How much returns fluctuate year to year. Higher = more risk. Typical: ~15–17% for 100% stocks, ~8–10% for a balanced portfolio, ~5% for bonds.
How much prices rise each year, eroding your purchasing power. US historical average: ~3%. Recent range: 2–4% (long-term Fed target is 2%).
How long your money needs to last. A 65-year-old has a ~50% chance of living past 85, and a 25% chance past 90. Planning for 25–30 years is common.
For educational purposes only. Past market performance does not guarantee future results.